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今日佢介紹jor佢既歐洲朋友 - Niels Jensen ，嘗試用另一角度睇次按危機：(小弟嘗試將一D重要數據放係依度分享，詳文請參考John既newsletter)

1. 直升機派錢

The US monetary base has literally exploded in recent weeks and is up a staggering 38% year-on-year - the highest increase since 1939 according to my good friend Simon Hunt at Simon Hunt Strategic Services. Not entirely surprising, you might say.

2. 美國既貸款開始放鬆

Meanwhile, in the US, bank lending is already responding to Fed's tactics. Total commercial and consumer bank lending has grown by an annualised rate of almost 50% in the last month and a half. Quite impressive in an economy which is supposedly in recession.

3. 拉丁美洲及東歐比新興亞洲更差

Looking at the evidence produced in a new Goldman Sachs research paper¹, it is primarily Eastern Europe one has to worry about. Credit growth in Eastern Europe and Latin America has been much stronger than in emerging Asia (chart 2).

However, if you then look at the state of the current account (chart 3), it is evident that Eastern Europe is facing a much bigger challenge than the other two regions. Their current account deficit has grown dramatically since the turn of the Millennium and now stands at close to 10% of GDP.

This puts Eastern Europe in a very vulnerable situation. When Asia was in a similar situation back in the late 1990s, it ended in tears with currencies blowing up and consumer spending collapsing. Ultimately, though, it resulted in much improved current accounts as the weak currencies led to an export boom, but there was considerable pain before they got to that point.

4. 歐洲銀行 at risk

5. Spain is the latin juggernaunt

6. 去摃杆化繼續

7. 衰退重係開始階段

Source: http://www.investorsinsight.com/blogs/john_mauldins_outside_the_box/archive/2008/11/10/when-the-chickens-come-home-to-roost.aspx