投票結果 (你睇好黃金嗎(現價$900)？)

睇好 8 (53%)
睇淡 1 (6%)
升升跌跌，但冇升幅 6 (40%)

一半讀者睇好黃金，亦有差唔多一半認為升升跌跌，但冇升幅。跟據結果，暫時買金可能起到避險作用！

投票結果 (美國未來到底會進入九十年代日式通縮抑或變成阿根廷式通脹)

美國未來到底會進入九十年代日式通縮抑或變成阿根廷式通脹？

日式通縮 1 (20%)
阿根廷式通脹 4 (80%)

如果真係好似依個結果，咁，大家既港幣資產都幾麻煩。

投票結果 (匯控，你會買嗎？)

會	8 (57%)
唔會	6 (42%)

Votes so far: 14

好淡爭持，相信，匯控依然係大家既愛股！

投票結果

一月效應，你相信嗎？(即一月後，股市又向下調整....)

信 12 (92%)
唔信 1 (7%)

你又信唔信？

投票結果 (美債會於2009年大副貶值嗎？)

會 12 (75%)
唔會 4 (25%)

大多數讀者都認為美債會大幅貶值。大家做好準備嗎？

投票結果 (人民幣會否大幅貶值?)

會 2 (14%)
唔會 12 (85%)

大多數讀者都唔認為會大幅貶值。

投票結果 (你會唔會買指數掛鉤基金?)

投票結果 (你會唔會買指數掛鉤基金?)

會 6 (37%)
唔會 10 (62%)

Votes so far: 16

以筆者既經驗，暫時都係避開穩陣。另外，想同大家分享下一個外國投資專家既 free newsletter，內容可能對你有幫助：

Dr. Gary D. Halbert
"Buy-And-Hold" Bites The Dust - Now What?

"'Index investing' is growing like wildfire among investors today…And it’s no wonder why. The allure of a simple, low-cost investment strategy tied to market indices that have been shown to grow over long periods of time sounds irresistible…The main problem is that Wall Street’s ad machine is only telling half of the story. They often use historical time periods that are far longer than what most people have to invest, and they also fail to disclose how much an investor might lose in a bear market or major correction.”

投票結果

去槓桿化勢在必行，Visa/Master Card等公司營業增長會否減慢？

會 15 (88%)
唔會 1 (5%)
唔知道 1 (5%)

大家都認為 Visa/Master Card 等公司增長放慢。

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
2008-11-10

回應一下依個課題，近日睇John Mauldin 就講到原來美國人簽卡愈來愈勁！

So, did American consumers cut back on borrowing? Not if they had a credit card! Total loans from commercial banks to consumers grew by $89 billion for the 12 months ending in September. $61 billion of that was credit card debt, and the amount in recent weeks has exploded. Let's look at this analysis from my favorite slicer and dicer of numbers, data-wizard Greg Weldon (www.weldononline.com). Going with a Halloween theme:

"FAR MORE 'telling' is the LOPSIDED degree to which Credit Card balance growth is 'contributing' to total growth in Consumer Loans, a sign of intensifying 'stress' on consumers, amid accelerating job loss, home price deflation, and equity-market paper wealth devaluation.

"Even the raging Frankenstein stops to note the shockingly UGLY data details:

Commercial Banks, Outstanding Credit Card Balances ... SOARED by an eye-opening + $7.1 billion in the WEEK ending October 15th, representing a +1.9% single-week rate of expansion ... or ... nearly ONE-HUNDRED PERCENT annualized (+98.4%).

"Even more 'telling' is the 'read' acquired by contemplating the following pair of data FACTS:

* Credit Card Loans, 10 months Sep07-thru-Jul-08 ... up + $29.1 billion

* Credit Card Loans, 10 weeks Aug-08-to-mid-Oct-08 ... up + $32.3 billion

"In other words, Commercial Bank 'exposure' via the total amount of Credit Card 'loans' outstanding has risen MORE in the last ten WEEKS, than it did in the previous ten MONTHS COMBINED !!!

"Moreover, the growth in the last ten-weeks, $32.3 billion, or about $600 million per 'shopping day' since the beginning of August ... represents nominal growth of + 9.3% ... or ... + 48.3% annualized over the last ten weeks.

"According to American Express, delinquencies on credit payments rose to 4.1% of all credit outstanding in the 3Q, up from 2.5% in 3Q of 2007, with Bank of America's rate rising even more steeply, to 5.9% in the quarter.

"Moreover, the 'pool' of loans deemed 'uncollectable' rose to a high 6.7% in the 3Q, soaring from 3.6% last September."[Emphasis mine.]

What consumer spending there is has been fueled in part by credit card. Greg notes this uncomfortable piece of data: the second largest "merchant-vendor" for credit card use is now McDonalds. This suggests that many consumers are in serious distress when they need to get their $4 Big Mac and fries with a credit card.

Reference:

http://www.investorsinsight.com/blogs/thoughts_from_the_frontline/archive/2008/10/31/electing-the-janitor-in-chief.aspx

投票結果 (近日很多散戶都喜歡"溝淡"，你贊成嗎?)

這次投票總共有25人參加。謝謝各位既參與！投票結果如下：

贊成	4 (16%)
反對	13 (52%)
隻隻股唔同	8 (32%)

差唔多一半人反對"溝淡"，証明大家都會遵守曹sir既意見。但係，我個人覺得其實"溝淡"都未必係錯，只要你現金充足，而你既對象係一D有實力既股，"溝淡"絕對可以考慮！

投票結果 (股聖公開話係時候入貨，你又點睇？)

今次投票有多達38人參加，係歷來最多，感謝大家既支持！

投票結果如下：

係時候 7 (18%)
有排未見底 16 (42%)
散戶唔可以跟股聖 15 (39%)

結果大家都覺得散戶同股聖係冇得比既，因為股聖買既係優先股，唔係正股。有4成以上既人覺得有排未見底，至於認為差唔多到底既係有2成。

暫時都係睇淡既居多。

至於"畢非德叫你當別人恐懼之時貪心"既理論 (因為大部份人睇淡) ，會唔會係依家岩用？

我覺得暫時未係(以香港計)，因為你身邊既人未開始失業、凍薪、冇雙糧，依家重有好多散戶溝淡，溝淡，再溝淡。係咁既情況下，重未睇到散戶"恐懼"既表現。各位高手，你又點睇？

投票結果

你認為現在係Secular Bear Market嗎？

是	7 (63%)
否	1 (9%)
不知道	3 (27%)

有關 Secular Bear Market 既資料我會日內補充，敬請留意。

投票結果

你認為未來係通脹定通縮?

總數： 14 人
認為係通脹: 4 人
認為係通縮: 10 人

即70%以上既人認為通縮。你又點睇？