- 11月9日，周日。上周泰國股市上升12.4％，台灣股市跌2.6％，理由不詳。(曹sir可愛之處就係唔會用一D佢唔明白既理由去解釋現況，反而，有D評論員通常都係事後孔明.....)
- 道指出現接近1000點回落後，周五出現「奧巴馬反彈」。迪士尼宣布，第三季純利下降13％；Morton牛扒屋話唔夠客；《華爾街日報》指出，美國人正從高風險投資、奢華嗜好、高級餐廳及名貴產品市場撤退，走向節儉！美國人終於明白節儉係美德，甚至的士乘客亦正在減少。
- 喺一片利淡消息中，美股上周五上升係因為指數已拋離200天線太多，出現技術性反彈。估計整個11月都係咁，即股市短期對壞消息反應麻木。(相信港股一樣)
- 我老曹係Economic Cycle Research Institute讀者，堅信盛衰循環理論。(Business Cycle)
- 上周五Weekly Leading Index係負24.6％，代表乜嘢？即各位準備迎接一次極速經濟放緩（或衰退）。
- 依家美國同英國已係負利率（利率低於CPI增長率），但無法阻止兩國經濟下滑。
- 零利率係咪可以解決資產負債表衰退困難？從日本過去經驗答案係No。
- 去年10月至今股市只下跌十三個月，短期反彈隨時出現，至於見底？似乎仲太早。
- 不但汽車業及房屋係咁，大部分日用品亦係咁，因此甚至降至零利率亦無法刺激美國消費者再增加消費。(日用品產能過剩，直接受影響既肯定係中國。)
- 瑞銀估計，中國明年GDP增長率只有7.5％（或更少）。政府已計劃增加鐵路項目投資及大量興建低成本住宅，去減慢明年GDP下降速度。
- 上周中國政府已要求出席秘魯財長急急回國商討對策，估計短期內中國將公布刺激經濟方案。(四萬億振興內需！)
- 中國面對海外投資價值暴跌必須撥備；進出口貿易資金回收上有困難及訂單減少情況下，明年貿易順差將大大收窄，影響中國勞工就業情況。最近中國政府已降低 出口關稅去應付，但收效未見；至於對金融、保險及證券業衝擊只要睇睇滬深三百指數跌幅已可知一二。房地產面對海外投資機構拋售、抽離資金及美國地產危機對 中國人購買意欲影響正在浮現。
- 2006年後美國人亦開始後悔買樓；2007年後英國人亦開始後悔買樓；2008年起中國人亦加入後悔買樓行列。隨住戰後嬰兒步入退休潮，各國樓價一個接一個進入回落潮。
- 由去年11月起計，美股下跌已超過十二個月，估計熊市明年年中完成，然後進入復甦。未來將出現惡性通脹、高利率及高失業率期。黃金價格如低過700美元應開始收集。(曹sir之前話反對揸黃金，依家就話可以收集，大家點睇？ Reference)
- 大三通對香港經濟影響好細，反而澳門經濟卻係雪上加霜。
I initially think I should not response/read your blog any more but I like your attitude that we all human being and we reckon our limitations.
回覆刪除===========
About gold,
1. Helicopter has already taken off.
Read the data in this page,
http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h41/
(the total factors supplying reserve funds)
You need to extract all the data from each report. Then you can get the picture.
What it shows? It shows how fast FED printing money!!! You will scare of the speed if you plot the graph.
The FED target interest rate is 1.0%. However, the effective interest rate is already lower than 1% even before subtracting CPI(Cao's didn't mention this part). And there is no sign that FED will stop in the nearest future. The only thing I see is FED is trying to print more and faster than ever in history.
Obama said he is going to make another 1 trillion dollars stimulus package. So where is the money from?
Obama promised to help the poor and help people to keep their jobs. Look at GM, Ford and Chrysler. If Obama helps the auto industries, he needs to print more money.
One of the differences between Japan recession and US recession is -- Japanese has a high saving rate, while US has none. Many believe US's style recession will be much worse than the Japanese's (I am not too convinced about this; after all US is a big camel, which can survives without drinking water for a long time)
2. The whole world is going to solve their financial crisis by increasing their money base and 0% interest rate policy. i.e. try to spend to reduce the pain of recession.
A consequence will be
--Transfer wealth from savers to borrowers.
There is no solution but trade-off.
Any action FED and the western countries do will have consequences.
For short term, commodity price drops because of the recession (or a mild depression). For the long term, because the money printing speed is too fast, inflation and perhaps hyperinflation will be back. (That is why Mr Cao advised people to keep away from the long term (10years) US Treasury bonds.
The impression I have from today Cao sir's article is that -- he reckons the inflation will come much earlier than he previous predicted. To protect yourself in the event of hyperinflation, gold is the key. He previously suggested gold can go as low as 600usd. Today, he suggests we should accumulate from 700usd. Cao sir starts to worry about the inflation we are going to face in the future!!
Some HK analysts, like Law Ka Chung has the same opinion about gold as Mr Cao. Mr Law even suggested we should buy gold bar instead of gold stocks, like 2899 or gold etf (afraid these companies and eft will be bust too??)
Roubini on the other hand, recommended Japan's government bond. He thinks as US interest rate is going to lower than Japan's. Carry trade using Yen will not have any advantage any more. (From the interest futures market, there is more than 40% probability that the target rate will be 0.5%.) Yen will be surge (bad to Japanese economy). You gain both from interest and exchange rate.
About Morton: you can read this article for a broader view.
http://www.rimag.com/article/CA6610451.html
mL
p.s.
振興內需,not 震興內需
多謝mL繼續使用寶貴既時間係依度分享意見。希望除了我之外，其他讀者都可以係你身上學習更多。
回覆刪除另外，也希望其他讀者，多對曹sir文章發言。