2008年10月25日

今日曹sir (2008-10-25)

- 10月24日,周五。恒生指數大瀉1142.11,收12618.38;成交561.4億元。10月期指跌1271點,收12500點;11月期指跌1263點,收12450點。期指倒掛現象又再出現,代表後市進一步睇淡。(如果下星期開市期指高過恒指,咁又代表睇好? 先幾日好似出現睇好,咪又係跌!)

- 滙控(005)被大摩下調目標價至580便士,响香港已大跌13%,喺倫敦進一步下跌。($85 都會失手?)

- 全球汽車大挫,擔心全球經濟將陷入大衰退。(用汽車衡量是否適合?)

- 美元走強令金價進一步回落,國際金價700美元失守,見682.4美元,向我老曹估計中650美元進軍。本周金價跌咗13%;白金跌4%,成778.35美元,本周共跌16%,進一步令人擔心通縮。(當實金下跌至6xx元,應該買入)

- 南韓股市三年內首次跌穿1000點,成938.75;指數由舊年10月31日2064.85回落至今,跌幅54.5%;本周已回落20.5%。今天LG跌9.8%,Kia汽車跌14.8%。(南韓真係頭痕,睇番年頭有D基金評論,重推薦南韓!!!)

- 日圓同美元已成為全球兩大強勢貨幣,估計強勢可維持到2009年首季,愈維持得耐,對全球經濟破壞愈大。

- 雖然畢非德叫你當別人恐懼之時貪心,但我老曹堅持响家吓環境,小心駛得萬年船。(曹sir都睇唔通後市,你如果買實股,都係小心D!)

- 各國政府不斷推出刺激經濟方案,但各國股市卻不斷下沉。

- 我老曹搵唔到未來復甦之路响邊,睇落我地將步日本九十年代後塵,進入迷失新世代! (Generation Lost?)

- 今天銀行連同業(銀行)都唔肯借錢,要佢地貸款畀中小企?你講嘢呀!

- 今天連畢非德亦睇錯市,你又可以信邊個?

- 恒生指數由1700點跌落700點後我老曹入貨,事後發現恒指竟可跌至150點。底從來都係出現之後一個月才知道,冇人能事前成功估底(包括畢非德)。(曹sir不斷重提畢非德太早入市!)

- 西方世界政府正努力阻止,並希望重新恢復信貸增長。但我老曹相信佢地最終將失敗。

- 價值投資法信徒早已認為大量股票抵買,只係手上資金愈來愈有限。

- 我老曹睇法係:股市既然可以偏高,自然亦可以偏低,抵買並唔代表可以買。

- 美國利率好快會見1厘,之後貝南奇可以用工具已十分有限,唔通真係要揸直升機去擲銀紙?

- 10月8日政府再批378億美元,擔心好快又會用晒,因為AIG為4040億美元固定收入投資提供擔保。响股市日沉下,AIG虧損在不斷擴大。(AIG 如果死,我相信股市下跌得重勁!!)

- 中國政府刺激房地產計劃估計作用唔大,因為中國經濟仲係出口導向型而非內需型。(中國轉唔轉到內需帶動?)

2 則留言:

  1. (如果下星期開市期指高過恒指,咁又代表睇好? 先幾日好似出現睇好,咪又係跌!)
    I see that the cash flow of many companies are dropping fast, It is not a moment to see "who gain", but a moment to see "who may survive with enough cash flow or banking credit". If it is like this, I see no reason why the market may go up, or in other words, we are just seeing rebound.

    $85 都會失手?)
    The force of fear is realling greater then anything on earth.

    南韓真係頭痕,睇番年頭有D基金評論,重推薦南韓!!!)
    Now we see what means by "expert opinion" That means someone you may spark your thoughts only. I see some experts now saying to us that they have sold away their investment for months already but they did not even hint us.

    曹sir都睇唔通後市,你如果買實股,都係小心D!)
    Fearless are only those who are as wealthy as 畢非德. I think only one man on earth who may follow him who is called Bill Gates. I really do not understand why people are still buying stock, aren't they fearless? "抵買唔代表可以買" is totally agreeable to me.

    各國政府不斷推出刺激經濟方案,但各國股市卻不斷下沉。
    They know there is nothing they may do to stop the trend, but if they do nothing, they will be blamed.

    (Generation Lost?)
    Yes, I do not see how the new generation may survive when company are cutting lost. Only those "old guy" may sit their ass at their seat and seeing how the market fail with nothing they can do. But it is lucky that we are in Hong Kong so the situation is not the worst.

    "Cash is King!"
    Yes, for the moment when banking credit is tight, but I guess it will be over soon because machines are kept printing bank notes in every second.

    今天銀行連同業(銀行)都唔肯借錢,要佢地貸款畀中小企?你講嘢呀!
    A very good fire back by Tso Sir, this is what the government are doing for their own sake.

    今天連畢非德亦睇錯市,你又可以信邊個?
    I do not think 畢非德 is wrong, but it is just what he has to do in his position. Like a super hero.

    西方世界政府正努力阻止,並希望重新恢復信貸增長。但我老曹相信佢地最終將失敗。
    A very brave and scary prediction. Hope he is wrong. I think the world may do it only if the whole rules are changed, So, the money will go from one hand to another.

    (AIG 如果死,我相信股市下跌得重勁!!)
    Yes, totally agree, then the whole financial system will fail because one one may find a backup for our backup (insurance).

    (中國轉唔轉到內需帶動?)
    No, only if the economy is good than the time of change may be shortened. But now the economy is bad, who may have the money to boost the internal demand. It is only the PRC government who may take the lead on one hand, and tell a story to the PRC people that PRC economy is independent from the outside world on the other hand. But when people are seeing that many company goes bankrupt, do they still have such confident. I doubt it.

    P.S. it is good to spend time on Tso Article and discuss, better than just scan through the article and leave it aside

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  2. 我都認為寫評論會加深對事物既理解。尢其依家Internet發達,我地更加可以利用不同背景既人既意見,啟發思維。

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