2008-10-25: 今個星期有網友提出睇 大快活(52), 大家樂(341),小肥羊(968).
昨天股市大插，睇下依D股既表現：
大快活(52) 5.900
0.050 0.85%大家樂(341) 12.400 冇升跌
小肥羊(968) 1.490
0.010 0.67%睇落真係唔差！
2008-10-31: 今個星期真係好瘋狂，急跌後又急升！ Anyway，睇下大快活, 大家樂同小肥羊先!
大快活(52) : $5.85
大家樂(341): $12
小肥羊(968): $1.4
普遍下跌些小，睇情況大家都係走去炒藍籌，依D股冇人記得啦!
今日羅家聰先生有討論內需，正切合需求：
回覆刪除然而在數字上，零售銷售依然強勁，如何解釋？大陸的零售數據是指零售額，通脹之下，即使不買更多亦要花更多，故十幾年來零售升幅皆隨通脹上落【圖三】。在下將零售額經消費物價調整（deflate）後得出零售量，對比之下，即見當通脹見頂後約一年零售量升幅便跟隨回落（圈着部分）。很簡單：通脹見頂前後通常是盛極而衰的時候。
通縮下物價一日平過一日，百姓死等不願消費，港人定有印象。重溫圖三，通縮日子下，實質零售量增長其實比賬面所見的為少（方框部分）。
盛衰還看樓市，樓市以至經濟其實已差到出面。聯滙之下，上次衰退美元強，今次一樣強，使調整期變得漫長。單從GDP看，上次最壞的情況看似只有1998年【圖四，圈着部分】，但百姓真正感受到的通縮及失業之苦還在後頭，搞足六年（方框部分）。純從經濟周期來看，今次通縮、失業威脅跟上次本質一樣，即有過之，港府可以怎樣？
唔通內需都唔掂？
當經濟進入衰退期,基礎建設行業往往成了價值投投資的領域,
回覆刪除如鐵路、公路和橋樑建設,這些是政府最直接利用財政政策來擴大內需有的效途徑。
社會必需品則成了規避風險的領域, 如農業、交通運輸、醫藥行業,商業百貨等。
據以上分析以及當前的國際經濟運行情況和國內採取的經濟政策,我們認為作為發展經濟、提高人民物質集體化生活水平的重要基礎設施 — 鐵路運輸業,將蘊含價值投資機會。
而中國鐵建,中國中鐵為鐵路運輸行業代表的內需股.
I really do not see the trend of internal demand and do not trust it unless it is done by the government with loads and loads of cash. All they are doing is to give you hope in desperate time.
回覆刪除You may consider this as a bullshit because I am not good at analysis and may be statics are showing that it is good. But if all people are lacking of money and their assets are devalued, how could they find the money (i mean those money from the people) to boost the internal demand.
Maybe they can acheive it at the end of the day, but I do not think they can do it at such difficult time, though i may be wrong because i did not do any research before giving this opinion.
In a word, I think all they can do is to maintain the demand at a certain level, but I do not see any investment value in it.
Hope i am wrong.
政府帶頭羅錢出來搞基建帶動內部經濟，會唔會係政府應該做既事？如果政府唔幫手，企業都幫唔到幾多！Right?
回覆刪除I really have no idea, whether the force of government or the force of external market condition is greater. Though it is a very interesting to discuss. Appreciate your initiative to spark our thoughts.
回覆刪除As a seperate matter, I concur the view of Tso Sir (though I may not the priviledge to as I am just nobody to him) that by Chinese New Year, market will not be just bad, but ugly. If I am correct (just if), I guess it would not be difficult to see 9xxx by that time.
唉... 中午收市, 全軍覆沒...
回覆刪除00052仲創新低...
無一幸免，Cash is King!?
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